The global PC market suffered a brutal contraction in the third quarter of 2026, as surging memory prices, driven by the AI boom, choked consumer demand and pushed shipments sharply lower.
According to Counterpoint Research, worldwide PC shipments fell 21% year over year in Q3 2026, dropping to 57.0 million units from 72.2 million a year earlier, a loss of more than 15 million machines in a single quarter.
The slump is no blip. Every quarter since the start of 2026 has posted a steep decline across all major vendors, signalling a sustained downturn rather than a passing wobble.
The pain was widespread. Market leader Lenovo shipped 15.0 million units but fell 23%, while HP slid a punishing 31%, the steepest drop among the top six. Dell declined 25%.
Two names fared better. Apple, cushioned by its MacBook Neo, limited its fall to 11% and grew share to 9.8%. ASUS proved most resilient, down just 7% year over year but up 19.4% from the prior quarter.
The root cause lies in the AI gold rush. Insatiable demand for DRAM and NAND to feed AI data centres has consumed vast supply, driving memory and component prices sharply higher.
Those rising costs make PC replacements far harder to justify, especially for price-sensitive consumers who see little reason to upgrade at inflated prices.
Commercial demand held up better, supported by Windows migration and corporate fleet refreshes. But as analyst Minsoo Kang noted, those cycles “are no longer enough to offset weakening demand.”
The outlook darkens further. Counterpoint forecasts a 27% year-over-year fall in Q4 2026, with 2027 expected to stay roughly flat at a lower base. Micron warns shortages may persist until 2028.
Ultimately, as analyst David Naranjo cautioned, “stabilization should not be mistaken for recovery.”
