India’s smartphone market is heading into the 2026 festive season with a sharp divergence between sales volume and market value. Counterpoint Research expects smartphone shipments between October 8 and November 8 to decline around 12% year-on-year, while overall market value is projected to increase 5%.
Rising memory costs, particularly for DRAM and NAND, are pushing smartphone prices higher and forcing consumers to extend replacement cycles. Multiple rounds of price increases are also reducing the ability of manufacturers to rely on aggressive festive discounts to stimulate demand.
Despite weaker volumes, higher average selling prices are supporting market value. Consumers who do upgrade are increasingly choosing higher-value smartphones, supported by financing schemes, trade-ins and promotional programmes that make premium devices more affordable.
According to Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak, the biggest challenge will be the shrinking pool of active buyers. Discretionary upgrades are likely to be postponed, leaving replacement-driven customers and consumers attracted by compelling affordability offers as the primary growth opportunities.
The shift will also reshape competition across online and mainline channels. Physical retail stores are expected to experience stronger festive footfalls, but converting interest into actual purchases will depend heavily on financing, exchange benefits, targeted promotions and the overall value proposition offered by brands.
The 2026 festive season therefore signals a broader transformation of India’s smartphone industry from a volume-led to value-led market. Consumers are becoming more selective, prioritising specifications, longevity and value for money. For smartphone brands and channel partners, success will increasingly depend not simply on selling more devices, but on delivering greater value per customer while making higher-priced technology affordable.
Festive Season Smartphone Sales (in Mn Units)
