Jio ARPU growth to stay gradual as tariff hikes likely post Jio Platforms IPO

Analysts expect Reliance Jio’s ARPU growth to remain moderate in the near term, as tariff hikes are unlikely before the proposed Jio Platforms IPO, shifting focus toward usage growth, subscriber upgrades and home broadband expansion.

Reliance Jio’s average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to see only incremental growth over the coming quarters, as the telecom operator is unlikely to increase tariffs before the planned listing of Jio Platforms, according to reports citing analysts tracking the sector. Despite steady subscriber additions, the absence of near-term price hikes means revenue expansion will largely depend on higher data usage, customer mix improvement and growth in non-mobile segments.

During recent management commentary, Jio indicated that the timing of the Jio Platforms initial public offering remains dependent on regulatory clarity rather than operational preparedness. The company is awaiting updated listing guidelines from the ministry of finance that would allow large corporates to go public with smaller issue sizes. Until these norms are finalised, the IPO timeline remains uncertain, though June 2026 continues to be the company’s indicative target.

Tariffs, elections and growth drivers

Brokerage firms have consequently pushed back expectations of mobile tariff hikes. IIFL Securities noted that channel checks suggest any price increases are likely only after the Jio Platforms IPO. The brokerage also flagged upcoming state elections in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu in April–May 2026 as an additional factor that could delay tariff action.

ICICI Securities echoed similar views, stating that management commentary did not reflect urgency around raising mobile tariffs. Instead, the company appears comfortable with growth being driven by expanding home broadband, fixed wireless access (FWA) and enterprise services.

As a result, ARPU growth in the near term is expected to come primarily from increased data consumption, customer upgrades to higher plans and a richer subscriber mix. Analysts cautioned that while this approach supports steady growth, it may not deliver sharp ARPU expansion without pricing interventions.

Capex focus shifts to home broadband

Capital expenditure trends indicate a strategic shift toward home connectivity. With most of the 5G rollout already completed, incremental investments are now being channelled into home broadband, particularly FWA, where returns are viewed as more predictable.

FWA remained a key growth engine during the December quarter, with Jio adding nearly two million subscribers, taking the total FWA base beyond 11 million. This helped push the company’s overall home subscriber base past 25 million. Analysts highlighted that FWA users typically consume more data than mobile-only customers, supporting usage-led revenue growth.

Operationally, the quarter reflected stable performance, with revenue growth driven by volumes rather than pricing. EBITDA improved sequentially, while margins stayed largely stable despite higher operating costs, supported by scale benefits and ongoing cost efficiencies.