Global smartphone shipments are projected to decline about 7% year-on-year in 2026, according to Omdia reports, as rising memory costs and geopolitical tensions weigh on demand.
Tight memory supply and elevated pricing have increased the share of memory in smartphone bills of materials, squeezing margins—especially for entry-level devices.
Vendors have already raised retail prices since late 2025, but further hikes risk dampening demand in price-sensitive markets.
Omdia warns that if memory shortages persist due to AI server demand and geopolitical instability drives energy and freight costs higher, shipments could fall more than 15%, surpassing the 12% drop seen in 2022.
The sub-$100 segment is expected to contract nearly 31%, while devices priced between $100 and $399 may also decline due to cost pressures.
In contrast, premium smartphones above $800 are forecast to grow around 4%, supported by stronger brand power and supply chain advantages from players like Apple and Samsung.
The shifting cost landscape is likely to intensify supply chain consolidation and pressure smaller vendors in 2026.
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