India launches first AI-powered monsoon forecast system

The new forecasting platform will deliver highly localised and advance monsoon predictions using artificial intelligence, helping farmers, disaster management agencies and government departments improve planning, preparedness and climate-related decision-making across thousands of regions in India.

The India Meteorological Department has introduced the country’s first Artificial Intelligence-driven monsoon forecasting system, marking a major technological advancement in India’s weather prediction capabilities.

The new system has been designed to provide highly localised and high-resolution monsoon forecasts in response to rising demand from agriculture and other sectors for more precise weather information. Officials said the platform represents a significant move toward next-generation forecasting powered by data analytics, machine learning and impact-based weather assessment.

The forecasting framework has been jointly developed by the India Meteorological Department, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.

According to meteorological officials, the initiative aims to improve the accuracy and timeliness of monsoon-related forecasts while strengthening support for farmers, local administrations, disaster response agencies and policymakers.

Weekly forecasts up to four weeks in advance

The AI-enabled system will issue probabilistic forecasts tracking the progression of the monsoon every Wednesday, with predictions extending up to four weeks ahead.

The service is expected to support agricultural planning across 16 states and more than 3,000 sub-districts through dissemination channels operated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare. Officials said the information would help farmers make better decisions regarding sowing, irrigation, fertiliser use and crop protection.

The forecasting model combines AI-based analytical tools, extended-range weather prediction systems and statistical modelling techniques to generate operational forecasts tailored to local conditions.

Shift towards impact-based forecasting

Experts associated with the project said the initiative signals a transition from traditional forecasting methods to decision-support and impact-oriented weather services.

Unlike conventional forecasts that focus mainly on rainfall or temperature estimates, the new system is intended to provide actionable insights that can assist authorities in managing climate-sensitive sectors more effectively.

The move comes as India increasingly experiences erratic weather patterns, changing rainfall distribution and climate-related risks affecting agriculture, water management and disaster preparedness.

Officials believe the integration of artificial intelligence into monsoon forecasting could improve forecasting efficiency and help reduce weather-related economic losses, particularly in rural and agriculture-dependent regions.

The government is also expected to gradually expand the use of AI-powered weather intelligence across additional forecasting and climate-monitoring services in the future.