Lancet paper claims India to be 3rd largest economy by 2050

As per the Lancet paper claims, there would be huge declines in the working age population in China and India, alongside steady increases in Nigeria, though India would maintain the top position. “By 2100, India was forecasted to still have the largest working-age population in the world, followed by Nigeria, China, and the USA. In our reference scenario, despite fertility rates lower than the replacement level, immigration sustained the US workforce," it added.

India will overtake Japan to become the third-largest economy in the world behind USA and China by 2050 and continue to occupy the slot till 2100, according to a study published by medical journal Lancet.

The study made the forecast by constructing GDP models based on the availability of working age population in various countries and by estimating economic and geopolitical effects of the shift in demographics in future.

Other countries bolstered by immigration that rose up in the global rankings by GDP were Australia and Israel. Despite huge declines in population forecasted this century, the paper said Japan will remain the fourth-largest economy in 2100.

The key findings of the paper suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. “A sustained TFR (total fertility rate) lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come," it said.