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US Golden Dome Faces Major Cost and Technology Challenges
The United States' ambitious Golden Dome missile defence programme could require tens of thousands of space-based interceptors (SBIs), raising serious questions about its technological feasibility, financial sustainability and effectiveness against modern ballistic missile threats. A new analysis by Dr. Laura Grego of the Union of Concerned Scientists and Dr. Frederick Lamb of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign suggests that even defending the continental United States against a coordinated attack involving just four modern ballistic missiles could demand an enormous orbital interceptor network. The findings challenge earlier US government estimates of the system's scale and cost. Researchers argue that deploying thousands of interceptors in space would involve extraordinary expenditure, while offering limited assurance of protection against sophisticated missile attacks. One of the biggest challenges is what experts describe as the “ tyranny of time .” Ballistic missiles travel at extremely high speeds, leaving only a narrow window for detection, tracking, decision-making and interception. Any delay could undermine the effectiveness of the entire defence architecture. The study also highlights the risks associated with increasingly automated military decision-making. Compressing response times during a nuclear crisis could increase the possibility of miscalculation, accidental escalation or unintended conflict. Another concern is the ability of adversaries to overwhelm or circumvent the proposed defence network through coordinated launches, countermeasures and evolving missile technologies. Such strategies could make even a highly expensive space-based interception system ineffective. The researchers further question whether Golden Dome could deliver reliable protection within the next 15 years, particularly against substantial attacks from nuclear powers such as Russia and China. The larger strategic concern is whether investing heavily in space-based missile defence could create a false sense of national security while intensifying the global arms race. The study recommends prioritising nuclear risk reduction, diplomatic engagement and arms control agreements rather than relying on an enormously complex and potentially unreliable orbital defence network. Ultimately, Golden Dome highlights a fundamental challenge in modern defence strategy: technological superiority does not automatically guarantee national security, especially when the threat involves nuclear weapons and rapidly shrinking response times.
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